It's that time again.
Time for me to predict what I think might have a shot at taking home the biggest prizes Hollywood has on offer this year. (Believe me, I possess no inside knowledge, so I'd advise against using what follows as a blueprint for your own Oscar pools, if you are entering one.)
Here we go:
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Amy Adams - "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter - "The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo - "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld - "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver - "Animal Kingdom"
Boy, at one time I really thought Melissa Leo was a lock here. But as the event grows near, I'm more of the belief that Hailee Steinfeld is going to end up taking the prize. Her laid back, engaging personality really works in her favor, especially since Leo recently rubbed several voters the wrong way by purchasing a glossy ad in the trades campaigning for the award. That, coupled with competition from the tremendous work of Amy Adams in the same movie, and I smell an upset in this category. My vote would still go to Leo based solely on her performance, yet...
Who I predict WILL win: Hailee Steinfeld - "True Grit"
Who I would VOTE FOR: Melissa Leo - "The Fighter"
Christian Bale - "The Fighter"
John Hawkes - "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner - "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo - "The Kids are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush - "The King's Speech"
Christian Bale has always been the frontrunner, still is the frontrunner, and will most likely end up taking the award. The biggest potential for an upset would be Geoffrey Rush, though I think that with Colin Firth primed to get the leading actor nod, the Academy will give this one to Bale. And of course, his performance was pretty tremendous. (Yeah, that's always a plus!) Jeremy Renner's role in "The Town" was a memorable one, though the movie itself faded from the public eye. Mark Ruffalo will continue to be honored for his body of work. John Hawkes is finally getting a little overdue recognition in Hollywood, but the nomination is his reward.
Who I predict WILL win: Christian Bale - "The Fighter"
Who I would VOTE FOR: Christian Bale - "The Fighter"
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Annette Bening - "The Kids are All Right"
Nicole Kidman - "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence - "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman - "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams - "Blue Valentine"
Natalie Portman is the biggest lock of the night. And it's hard to argue with that. The nightmarish atmosphere of "Black Swan" was filtered through the unsettled fabric of her performance. My vote? That's a hard one, as this is actually--despite the seemingly inevitable outcome--the most competitive category in terms of the individual talent on display. Bening, Kidman, and Williams give perhaps the finest performances of their individual careers. This is definitely Portman's best work. And Jennifer Lawrence's fierce persona carries the entire weight of "Winter's Bone." Since Kidman has already won, Portman will win this year, and Williams will certainly win one day... my vote would probably go to Annette Bening. She's the most overdue.
Who I predict WILL win: Natalie Portman - "Black Swan"
Who I would VOTE FOR: Annette Bening - "The Kids are All Right"
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Javier Bardem - "Biutiful"
Jeff Bridges - "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg - "The Social Network"
Colin Firth - "The King's Speech"
James Franco - "127 Hours"
The second biggest lock of the night. Colin Firth should take this one. Javier Bardem and Jeff Bridges turned in mesmerizing performances in two very different movies. Both have recently won, however. Jesse Eisenberg's depiction of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg was crucial to that movie's success, as the entire substance of the story revolved around his personality traits and fractured relationships, yet I don't see him pulling the upset. If there IS a possible upset here, it could be James Franco. My personal vote would come down to a toss-up between the two. Firth is too well-respected, though, to go two years in a row with a nomination but no award. My vote would tilt in his favor as well, for a performance that shows a historical world leader in the most human, complex, engaging light.
Who I predict WILL win: Colin Firth - "The King's Speech"
Who I would VOTE FOR: Colin Firth - "The King's Speech"
Original screenplay
"Another Year" - Mike Leigh
"The Fighter" - Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, and Eric Johnson
"Inception" - Christopher Nolan
"The Kids are All Right" - Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
"The King's Speech" - David Seidler
My vote? Easy. "Inception" all the way. Hands down. The screenplay for that movie was so complex, layered, intricate in detail yet never seemed (to me, anyway) to sacrifice the more human side of the story. Nolan takes us into the world of the dream while never losing sight of the main character's emotional need to dive into such worlds in the first place. But will it win? It seems to take a back seat to both "The Kids are All Right" and the likely winner, "The King's Speech." There is probably too much momentum to knock either of those entries from the pole position. Yet...
What I predict WILL win: "Inception" (Whaaaaaat?) **
What I would VOTE FOR: "Inception"
(**Yes, this is going to be my curve ball pick of the night, although conventional wisdom would say I'm full of cinematic shit. But hey, if the decent-but-not-brilliant screenplay for "The Usual Suspects" can win in this category, is it really so crazy to think that just maybe...)
Adapted screenplay
"127 Hours" - Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
"The Social Network" - Aaron Sorkin
"Toy Story 3" - John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich
"True Grit" - Joen Coen and Ethan Coen
"Winter's Bone" - Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini
I loved "The Social Network." Thing is, if you were to ask me to break down specifically why I find it so fascinating, the task is a bit head-scratching. I'm not saying I'm wrong to have loved it... merely in awe of how Aaron Sorkin has taken the book by Ben Mezrich and extrapolated a mesmerizing character study of college kids that transform a night of inventive online antics into a billion dollar business. The only thing more strange than Facebook's ubiquitous presence in our daily lives is how its founder(s) arrived at their destination without fully realizing they were on the road in the first place. All the entries are solid here, but this one should go to "Network."
What I predict WILL win: "The Social Network"
What I would VOTE FOR: "The Social Network"
Achievement in directing
"Black Swan" - Darren Aronofsky
"The Fighter" - David O. Russell
"The King's Speech" - Tom Hooper
"The Social Network" - David Fincher
"True Grit" - Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
So this seems to be a two-man race between "The King's Speech" director Tom Hooper and "The Social Network"'s David Fincher. Now, the Directors Guild of America recently awarded Hooper the top prize, and of course the winner of the DGA best director practically always wins the Oscar.
I've read in various papers and blogs, however, that many believe this could be the year of a break in that tradition. Fincher is predicted by many to take top honors. But you know what? I just don't see it happening. True, Hooper's body of work isn't nearly as vast as the others in this category, but I don't expect "The Social Network" to have quite as much success as it did at the Golden Globes. Tom Hooper may seem not quite "ready" to receive the honor, but I'd remind you this is the same Academy that took literally decades before honoring Martin Scorsese with a win, and never rewarded Robert Altman with a best director statuette.
My vote? Well, it would have been--you guessed it--Christopher Nolan, except he didn't receive a nomination. So my second choice? This may seem like a little bit of a surprise, but I'd actually cast it for Darren Aronofsky for "Black Swan." All the directing efforts were stellar. But when I consider the intended effect on the viewer each film had, I have to say that the claustrophobic typhoon of paranoia unleashed by Aronofsky in "Swan" stayed with me the longest. I loved all the entries here, but it was "Swan" that had the most visceral effect on my psyche. Yes, the vote would come with an asterisk, as Nolan would have been my top choice... but Darren Aronofsky's work has really grown on me. I'd cast my vote in his direction.
Who I predict WILL win: Tom Hooper - "The King's Speech"
Who I would VOTE FOR: Darren Aronofsky - "Black Swan"
Best motion picture of the year
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"Inception"
"The Kids are All Right"
"The King's Speech"
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"
While overall I think the awards will probably be spread out this year--which always makes for a more interesting Oscar telecast--it looks like "The King's Speech" has, at the very least, maintained its momentum going into the final stretch. "The Social Network" has lost a little momentum since the Golden Globes.
The box office successes of "Black Swan" and "True Grit" could make them interesting dark horses in the race. "The Fighter", "127 Hours" and "The Kids are All Right" are VERY dark horses, but I suppose stranger things have happened.
"Toy Story 3" will get its recognition in the best animated category. "Inception" won't get as much recognition as it should. And despite the fact that it was a terrific movie, I can't name five people who have actually seen "Winter's Bone."
What I predict WILL win: "The King's Speech"
What I would VOTE FOR: "Inception"
The Oscar Telecast will air on ABC on Sunday, February 27th at 8:00pm.
